If there’s any conference that’s been difficult to predict in recent years, it’s the Big 12. The conference has had four different winners in the last four seasons, and seems to produce a surprise contender every year. Add in the fact that Oklahoma and Texas (the Big 12’s two all-time leaders in conference championships) have left for the SEC, and you’re looking at a mess of a conference with no clear frontrunner. Truly, half of the teams in this conference have a realistic shot of winning it this season. The Big 12 will welcome four new teams in 2024, bringing the total count to 16. Why name conferences by numbers at this point? The Big 12 has 16 teams, the Big 10 has 18, and the Pac 12 has two. It’s starting to get ridiculous, but I digress. In the modern age of conference realignment and the constant uncertainty that comes with it, this year may be crucial in the Big 12’s quest to solidify itself as the nation’s third toughest conference behind the Big 10 and the SEC. In order for that to happen, programs will need to outperform current expectations and prove doubters wrong. So, which schools will rise to the top? Which schools will leave their fans disappointed?
Arizona State
Six different quarterbacks threw passes for Arizona State last season. They combined for just eight touchdown passes and fourteen interceptions. To make matters worse, the most talented of those quarterbacks ditched the Sun Devils and transferred to Georgia in the offseason, leaving Michigan State transfer quarterback Sam Leavitt the likely starter. The Sun Devils are one of the new additions to the Big 12 this year, after the mass exodus from the Pac 12. I’m a big believer in giving new coaches time to establish a culture with their teams, but it looks like it may take a few seasons for Kenny Dillingham to turn this one around.
15. Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield, another second year head coach, will hope to see improvement in his squad after going 3-9 in the Bearcat’s debut season in the Big 12. His work in the transfer portal should patch up what was a poor defense last season. Cincinnati was able to produce 426.1 yards per game last season, ranking near the middle of the Big 12. However, they struggled to put the ball in the end zone, ranking near the bottom of the conference in points per game. Efficient transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby will be tasked with fixing that issue.
14. BYU
The BYU cougars started off their first season in the Big 12 hot, but finished with five straight losses and a losing record. Their defense was decent, but gave up 177.7 rushing yards per game. With heavy rushing teams like Kansas State and Oklahoma State on their schedule, I expect that to be a major issue. At the quarterback position, Jake Retzlaff looks primed to win the starting spot over college football journeyman Gerry Bohannon. Retzlaff was inefficient in the limited snaps he got last season, completing just over half of his passes. He will need to take a big leap if the Cougars are to compete in this conference.
13. Houston
It’s Dana Holgerson out, Willie Fritz in for Houston. Fritz comes over from Tulane in hopes of righting the ship for the Cougars. He has a talented quarterback in Donovan Smith to help him do so. Smith had some turnover issues last season, but showed flashes of being a strong starter. This team didn’t lose much talent on offense, but lost multiple starters on what was already a bad defense. Donovan Smith is talented enough to win this team some close games, but expect a mediocre season for Houston this year.
12. Baylor
The Dave Aranda era in Waco has been a bit of a rollercoaster so far. If you haven’t been paying close attention to Baylor recently, you might think of Aranda and remember that electric Big 12 championship win a few years ago. In reality, that season has been the Bears’ only winning season since Aranda arrived from LSU in 2020. After a disappointing 3-9 finish last year, Aranda may need to turn things around quickly to keep his position at Baylor. He’s brought in a new offensive coordinator in Jake Spavital to fix an offense that tied BYU for the fewest points per game last season. With the quarterback battle seemingly undetermined, Spavital may need to lean heavily on a talented running back group to get the offense going.
11. TCU
Last season, Colorado shocked the world by beating TCU in their first game. As it turned out, the Horned Frogs weren’t the powerhouse we thought they were following their national championship appearance the year prior. They went just 5-7, and had one of the worst pass defenses in the conference. This season, the Frogs have brought in a new defensive coordinator and a new quarterback to try to recover from last year’s woes. They haven’t brought in enough talent on defense for me to put them any higher on this list.
10. Colorado
Half of you probably think tenth is far too high for Colorado, and half probably think tenth is far too low. That tells me that this spot is just about right. Look, I believe that Deion Sanders is truly building something in Boulder. As I previously mentioned, building a culture takes time, especially when you replace the whole roster upon arrival. The Buffs have two of the best players in the nation in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, and they’ve continued to maximize the transfer portal, bringing in the most transfers in college football for the second year running. I expect to see improvement from this team, but there are still too many holes for them to compete for a conference title.
9. UCF
In all honesty, spots six through nine could fall in just about any order. I expect all of these teams to end up at or slightly above .500 this season. The UCF Knights finished at a disappointing 6-7 in their first season in the Big 12, but three of those losses were by two points or less. The Knights were just a few plays away from going 9-4 and looking like one of the better teams in the conference. Talented transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson will lead an offense that put up the second most yards per game in the conference last season. However, I expect their struggles in stopping the run to continue this season.
8. Texas Tech
Expectations were sky-high for the Red Raiders heading into the 2023 season, with some even calling for playoff contention. Tech never lived up to the hype, going 7-6 and losing games to lesser teams like Wyoming and BYU. This team returns enough talent on offense for fans to feel hopeful again, but they lost multiple starters to the NFL on defense. I expect the Red Raiders to hover around .500 again this season.
7. Iowa State
Iowa State was expected to be downright bad last season. After many predicted them to finish near the bottom of the Big 12, they went 7-5 fin the regular season. Matt Campbell’s squad has lost significant players from what was a stellar defense last season, but fan favorite quarterback Rocco Becht returns to lead the offense. The Cyclones will bring back multiple starters on the offensive line as well. Even if we can expect a bit of a hangover after outperforming expectations last season, Iowa State should comfortably slide into the top half of the Big 12.
6. West Virginia
West Virginia is another team that outperformed expectations in 2023, finishing 9-4. However, their six conference wins came against the bottom six teams in the Big 12, based on end-of-year standings. Their schedule this season should be much more difficult, as they play four of my top five ranked schools in this conference. They lost a few starters on their offensive line, and didn’t do enough to fix what was a weak defense last season. This running game should still be good enough to help them compete, but I expect the Mountaineers to finish closer to the middle of the pack this year.
5. Arizona
Arizona finished among the nation’s top 15 teams last season, earning an impressive 10-3 record in their final year in the Pac 12. They bring back offensive stars Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan, and are expected to immediately compete for a Big 12 championship. But let’s look deeper. The Wildcats lost their head coach Jedd Fisch to Washington bringing a few key players from Arizona with him. Despite their impressive record, stats show that Arizona was only slightly above average on both offense and defense. I’m not convinced that new head coach Brent Brennan can lead this team to meet their lofty expectations going into this season.
4. Kansas
Fourth might feel low for the Jayhawks, but let’s not forget that this program was consistently the worst in the conference until just a couple of years ago. Lance Leipold has led an impressive turnaround in Kansas, including a 9-4 finish in 2023. This is a star-studded offense, including running back Devin Neal and quarterback Jalon Daniels. However, I’m not convinced that Daniels can stay healthy for an entire season. He’s only played 12 games for the Jayhawks over the last two seasons. If he can stay on the field, this team should compete for its first ever Big 12 championship.
3. Oklahoma State
There are three things that I value most when evaluating a team’s potential for an upcoming season: a proven head coach, a returning starter at quarterback, and returning starters on the offensive line. Oklahoma State checks all three boxes. Alan Bowman is back at quarterback for what feels like his tenth season, and returning running back Ollie Gordon is one of the best players in the nation. Lack of consistency on defense does have me hesitant, but I expect the Cowboys to be among the top teams in the conference.
2. Utah
Kyle Whittingham has flown under the radar as one of the most successful college football coaches of the last two decades. In the Utes’ first season in the Big 12, he’s got a chance to solidify this program as one of the best in the conference. Cam Rising is back at quarterback after sitting out the 2023 season with a knee injury. His return should fix some of the struggles this offense saw last year. Utah’s defense has consistently been among the best in the Pac 12 recently, and it should be no different in the Big 12.
1. Kansas State
I have the Kansas State Wildcats as my top team in the Big 12 heading into this season. They lost quarterback Riley Leonard to the transfer portal, but sophomore Avery Johnson is expected to pick up right where Leonard left off. The offense will be bolstered by the addition of former Colorado running back Dylan Edwards, who will provide some added explosiveness. Chris Klieman’s defense consistently finishes near the top of the conference, and should do the same this season. Expect Kansas State to finish not only among the best schools in this conference, but among the best in the nation.
