College football has had two clear leading conferences since the end of Clemson’s dynasty in the late 2010’s: the SEC and the Big 10. For years, the Big 10 has been dominated by Ohio State and Michigan. No other school has won the conference championship since Penn State did in 2016. However, the conference looks more balanced than ever going into 2024. The Big 10 took full advantage of the collapse of the Pac-12, adding Oregon, Washington, USC, and UCLA as the conference now stretches from the northeastern United States to the beaches of the southwest. It remains to be seen how the new schools will fare in their debut seasons, but it seems clear that Ohio State and Michigan’s grasp on the conference is not as tight as it once was. Will the Big 10 powerhouses of old continue their reign, or will a newcomer take the throne?
18. Indiana
The Hoosiers finished last season 3-9 and at the bottom of the Big 10, leading to the firing of coach Tom Allen. New hire Curt Cignetti comes over from James Madison after leading the Dukes to nineteen wins in two seasons. Cignetti will have his work cut out for him as the Hoosiers’ defense was the worst in the conference in terms of yardage. Indiana brought in a large class of transfers, including wide receiver Elijah Sarratt and quarterback Kurtis Rourke.
17. Purdue
The Purdue Boilermakers had a disappointing 4-8 season in their first year under head coach Ryan Walters. They struggled heavily on defense, allowing over 30 points per game. The offense was propped up by the running game, featuring current New York Giant Tyrone Tracey Jr. and returning running back Devin Mockobee. The Boilermakers will once again be led by quarterback Hudson Card, who threw for 15 touchdowns in 11 games last season. I believe Purdue has a realistic shot at bowl eligibility this season, but they will have to overcome a difficult schedule.
16. UCLA
Out of the four former Pac-12 schools to join the Big 10, I expect the least out of UCLA in year one. The Bruins enjoyed an impressive eight win season in 2023, but this is a new roster and new coaching staff. Chip Kelly has left for the OC position at Ohio State and has been replaced by Deshaun Foster. UCLA returns only nine starters and 51% of their overall production, which is among the worst in the conference. I expect this to be a reset year for the Bruins in their new conference.
15. Northwestern
Northwestern had an impressive 2023 season, winning eight games and finishing with a bowl victory over Utah in David Braun’s first year as head coach. However, I expect to see some regression from the Wildcats this season. While this team returns the majority of its defensive starters and some key players on offense, the quarterback position is still up in the air. The transfer portal was not kind to Northwestern, as the Wildcats were only able to bring in six players, none of which appear to fix the underlying issues they faced last year.
14. Illinois
Illinois finished 2023 with only five wins. The Illini offense tallied 391 yards per game (third in the conference) but struggled to put up points, scoring an average of 24.5. While this team returns only 62% of their total production, they bring back key pieces on the offensive line and in the running game. Returning quarterback Luke Altmyer was largely ineffective last season, throwing for 13 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He will need to improve for Illinois to exceed expectations.
13. Maryland
Taulia Tagovailoa was one of the most productive quarterbacks Maryland football has ever seen. After his exit to the NFL, the Terrapins are left in a state of uncertainty about the team’s next steps. With just four weeks to go before the Terps’ opening game against UConn, Mike Locksley has not yet named a starting quarterback. Whoever assumes the starting role will be playing behind a fairly inexperienced offensive line. This was a solid defense last season, but there are too many holes on this roster for me to buy into their chances of remaining competitive in this conference.
12. Washington
Washington may fall farther than any other program in the country this season. After an incredible 2023 season in which they found themselves in the national championship game, both the roster and the coaching staff have been purged by the NFL. The Huskies return only 36% of their overall production, which ranks last in the Big 10. Transfer quarterback Will Rodgers will lead an offense that is without its top seven pass catchers from a year ago. I believe in new head coach Jedd Fisch, but it will take time to rebuild this roster.
11. Rutgers
The Scarlet Knights have failed to find success in the Big 10 since joining from the American in 2014. However, they broke their streak of eight consecutive sub-.500 seasons in 2023 and look ready to produce another winning season under Greg Schiano. Rutgers returns most of their starters from a group that finished in the top half of the conference in terms of yardage last season, allowing just over 300 yards per game. The Scarlet Knights avoid many top conference opponents on this years schedule. I expect this team to prove doubters wrong this year and continue their winning ways.
10. Michigan State
Michigan State’s season was derailed last year after Mel Tucker was fired for cause. The Spartans have only finished with more than seven wins once in the last six seasons, quickly falling away from the blue-blood status it seemed Mike Dantonio was earning them in the mid 2010’s. New head coach Jonathan Smith will hope to right the ship. This team returns only 61% of last season’s production, but Smith brought in an impressive top 15 ranked transfer class to patch the holes. If former Oregon State quarterback Aidan Chiles can help to fix what was one of the worst offenses in the conference last season, we could see significant improvement from Michigan State.
9. Minnesota
The 9-13 range in this conference is almost interchangeable. Ninth might feel high for a Minnesota team that went 6-7 last season, but I expect the teams in this range to be separated by only a game or two. Minnesota brings back eight starters from a defense that was average in most areas in 2023. The Golden Gophers have an experienced offensive line as well, bringing back multiple starters up front. I expect this to be another near .500 finish for P.J. Fleck’s team.
8. Nebraska
I believe in improvement over time for Matt Rhule teams. Let me tell you why. At each of Rhule’s previous two collegiate stops (Temple and Baylor), his teams failed to win more than two games in year one. In year two, both went 6-6 in the regular season. By year three, both were winning double digit games. Nebraska has brought in a top 25 recruiting class in both years of Rhule’s short tenure, including five star quarterback Dylan Raiola. Per the apparent Matt Rhule blueprint, the Cornhuskers may still be a year away, but this team is certainly on the rise.
7. USC
Lincoln Riley’s USC squad is expected by many to be one of the best teams in the Big 10 this season, but I’m not convinced. This team fell apart at the end of last season, losing five of their last six regular season games, and that was with first overall draft pick Caleb Williams leading the offense. Even if junior quarterback Miller Moss can live up to expectations, he’ll undoubtedly be a step down from what Williams brought to the table last season. USC only returns 50% of their overall production from last year, which is one of the lowest marks in the conference. Riley was able to put together a good transfer class over the offseason, but not good enough to make this team a true contender in a highly competitive Big 10.
6. Wisconsin
Luke Fickell’s first season at Wisconsin was a bit of a disappointment, as the Badgers finished 7-6 after beginning the year ranked in the nation’s top 25. As I’ve said before, it takes time for a new coach to establish a culture. Nick Saban only won seven games in his first season at Alabama. While Fickell is no Saban, I do expect him to improve upon last year’s results. Former Miami quarterback Tyler Van Dyke will step in to lead a talented offensive group. Offensive line and defensive secondary should be major strengths for this team heading into 2024.
5. Iowa
Iowa has been one of the most steady programs in the Big 10 in recent years under long-time head coach Kirk Ferentz. They finished last season 10-4 with an appearance in the conference championship game. Ferentz brought in Tim Lester off of the Green Bay Packers staff to be the Hawkeyes’ new offensive coordinator. Iowa’s offense was one of the worst in the entire country last season, but does it really matter? This offense hasn’t ranked in the top five of the conference in yardage in almost a decade, yet they continue to be competitive. At the end of the day, winning 10-7 counts just the same as winning 35-32. If Lester and quarterback Cade McNamara can get anything out of this offense, Iowa should be near the top of the conference again.
4. Michigan
I toyed with the idea of dropping Michigan out of the top four of these rankings. The defending champs lost key players on both sides of the ball, and most notably, lost head coach Jim Harbaugh. But I have to trust that this team will avoid a significant drop in performance. Since the College Football Playoff came to be in 2014, only one defending national champion has finished with less than 12 wins. This Michigan defense and rushing attack still have enough quality pieces to make them one of the best teams in the country.
3. Penn State
The Nittany Lions have kept themselves in CFP conversations during James Franklin’s time at the helm, but have never been invited to the dance. With an expanded 12 team format, that could all change in 2024. Quarterback Drew Allar is one of the most talented in the nation at his position, but he’s been unable to fully put the pieces together so far. If new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki can get Allar going to match what should be an elite defense, Penn State has a great chance to earn a playoff spot for the first time in school history.
2. Oregon
Oregon’s 12 win season in 2023 was overshadowed by the success of conference rivals Washington. Dan Lanning’s team took full advantage of the transfer portal this offseason, bringing in one of the nation’s top classes including quarterback Dillon Gabriel and speedy receiver Evan Stewart. The Ducks faced tough competition in the Pac-12 last season, but this conference schedule will be a gauntlet unlike any they’ve faced before.
1. Ohio State
The Buckeyes are my top team in the Big 10 heading into the season, and they may be my top team in the country. Coming off of an 11-2 finish in 2023, Ohio State boasts a star studded defense headlined by J.T. Tuimoloau, Caleb Downs, and Denzel Burke. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson make up the best running back duo in the country. The quarterback position was Ohio State’s most prevalent issue last season, but dual-threat transfer Will Howard should act as the solution. New offensive coordinator Chip Kelly should be able to get the most out of the abundance of weapons on this offense. This program looks as ready for a national championship run as they have since Ryan Day took over.
