via Erik Drost
Through the first three weeks of the 2024 NFL season, offenses were scoring at a lower rate than they have in years. Experts around the league were discussing the causes for the dip in points, with answers ranging from improved defensive scheme to younger quarterbacks. In Week 4, offenses around the league exploded. Seventeen teams scored at least 24 points, the highest mark of the season. In Week 5, some of the most explosive teams in the league will face off. Will the increase in scoring continue? I’ve listed my top five games this week, along with predictions for each matchup.
5. Panthers @ Bears
At first glance, this is not an exciting matchup. These are two of the NFL’s weakest offenses so far this season. The intrigue here isn’t in the present; it’s in the past. The 2023 trade that landed the Panthers the top overall pick (Bryce Young) in exchange for a haul of picks and D.J. Moore already looks like one of the worst trades in football history. This game is the Panthers’ chance to regain some sense of dignity regarding that trade. While Andy Dalton has already shown himself to be an improvement over Bryce Young, I expect the Bears’ defense to win them this game.
CHI 17-10 CAR
4. Ravens @ Bengals
Both the Ravens and the Bengals have had disappointing starts to the season. The Ravens, while still looking like a well-rounded team, have suffered close and frustrating losses to the Raiders and Chiefs. The Bengals, on the other hand, have a clear weakness. The Cincinnati defense has allowed an average of 28.5 points per game, which ranks fifth-highest in the league. The Bengals’ offseason “fixes” on defense have not yet had the desired effect. I expect the Ravens to carve up the Bengals and win this game comfortably.
BAL 31-20 CIN
3. Cowboys @ Steelers
The stocks of these two teams are headed in opposite directions. After losses to the Saints and Ravens and a shaky victory against the Giants, Dallas seems to be hanging onto contention by a thread. Meanwhile, the Steelers look like surprise contenders in the AFC after their 3-1 start. Justin Fields, while unpolished, has injected a dynamism to Pittsburgh’s offense that was sorely missed in 2023. I expect the Steelers’ heavy run game to overpower the Cowboys’ thin defensive front, leading to another Pittsburgh victory.
PIT 21-17 DAL
2. Buccaneers @ Falcons
At the start of the season, Atlanta was expected by most to win the NFC South handily. Through four weeks, it looks like Tampa Bay is proving doubters wrong once again. The Buccaneers sit atop the division at 3-1, led by Baker Mayfield’s aggressive passing style. Mayfield has thrown for eight touchdowns so far this season, which ranks second in the league. Kirk Cousins, on the other hand, has been disappointing so far. According to PFF, his passing grade of 64.7 ranks 23rd in the league, lower than players like Deshaun Watson and Gardner Minshew. I expect Tampa Bay to remain on top after week 5.
TB 28-27 ATL
1. Bills @ Texans
Two of the AFC’s best face off in the early window on Sunday. After a red-hot 3-0 start, the Bills were dominated by the Ravens in Week 4. They will look to bounce back against an immensely talented Texans team that has slightly underwhelmed so far this year. Both teams have the ability to put up points in bunches, so I expect this one to be a high-scoring battle. Nico Collins will be the difference as Houston improves to 4-1.
HOU 34-31 BUF
