In the last decade of NFL football, we have seen dynasties rise and fall. With them, divisions have risen into prominence and fallen into obscurity. The NFC East, for example, has been considered the best division in football and the worst division in football at various times in the last decade. I set out to rank the NFL’s eight divisions in terms of success over the last ten years. At the end of the day, winning is what matters in sports. I wanted to remove my opinions from this ranking and look purely at the success of each division. To accomplish that, I ranked each division by win percentage and conference championship appearances, using Super Bowl wins as a tie breaker to form a composite ranking. While some of the results were as expected, there were a few divisions I thought would land significantly higher or lower than they did.
8. AFC South
Win Percentage: 43.9%
Conference Championship Appearances: 3
The AFC South fell right where I expected. After the departure of Peyton Manning to the Broncos, no team has consistently seen success in this division. Aside from a few spikes, most of these teams have been consistently below league average. In fact, in the last ten drafts, the AFC South has owned a total of eleven top-5 picks. As I mentioned, there were brief periods of success for a few teams. The Texans are the only franchise in the division without a conference championship appearance within this timeframe. Don’t worry AFC South fans; there’s plenty of hope for these franchises. Each team is equipped with a talented young quarterback and plenty of young pieces to support their signal-callers. If I were to repeat this ranking a decade from now, I expect this division would land much higher.
7. NFC East
Win Percentage: 48%
Conference Championship Appearances: 2
This one I thought would fall higher. The Eagles and Cowboys have been good, right? Well, sort of. Despite both franchises consistently being among the most talked-about in the league, the Eagles account for the only two conference championship appearances the division has had in the last decade. The Cowboys, as fans know all too well, have been plagued with regular season success and postseason collapses since the 90’s. Of course, the Giants and Commanders have struggled to find any sort of success during this timeframe. I can’t say I see much of a positive trajectory for these franchises. The Eagles seem to be nearing the end of their current championship window, the Cowboys may be on the verge of a rebuild, and the Commanders and Giants lack the infrastructure to warrant optimism.
6. NFC South
Win Percentage: 48.2%
Conference Championship Appearances: 4
For the most part, each team in the NFC South has seen consistent mediocrity with a single short stretch of success in the last decade. Each team has one conference championship appearance, but the Saints are the only franchise of the group to have a winning percentage above 50% in the decade. Due to their haphazard “kick the can down the road” financial strategy, I don’t see the Saints’ winning ways carrying on much longer. Today, this is likely the worst division in the league. Last season, the Buccaneers won the division at just 9-8. A few teams in this division look like they could be competitive in the short term, but the Panthers are the only franchise with a significant young core.
5. NFC North
Win Percentage: 50.9%
Conference Championship Appearances: 6
The Green Bay Packers carry the load here, with a win percentage of 62% and four of the division’s six conference championship appearances. All four of those championship appearances ended in a loss for the Packers. While the Lions and Vikings have each seen short periods of success in recent years, the Bears have struggled for the entirety of the decade. Tides may be turning in Chicago, due in large part to being on the good end of one of the most lopsided trades in league history. The division as a whole has plenty to look forward to. The Lions just won their first two playoff games since long before I was born, the Packers have seemingly found yet another star quarterback without having to endure any mediocrity, the Vikings have a promising young core, and the Bears are clearly pointed toward success.
4. AFC North
Win Percentage: 52.5%
Conference Championship Appearances: 4
I had to double-check my math when I saw that the NFC North was this low. This is the best division in football, right? The Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals have been among the top teams in the conference in recent years and the Browns have finally built a competitive team. This division actually has the highest win percentage of any in the league. So, how is this possible? In short: a lack of sustained playoff success. The Ravens and steelers escpecially have found themselves in the playoffs more often than not, but haven’t been able to deliver consistently once they get there. It’s hard for me to imagine that both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow would go the rest of their careers without at least reaching the conference championship again, so I expect a slight bump for this division in the future.
3. AFC East
Win Percentage: 51.6%
Conference Championship Appearances: 6
Sure, this is mostly the result of the Patriots sustaining one of the NFL’s great dynasties during this timeframe. New England has won three Super Bowls since 2014 and had one of the league’s highest win percentages at 63.2 percent. As the Patriots have begun to decline, the Bills and Dolphins have risen to take their place. Since Josh Allen arrived in Buffalo, the Bills have posted a division-best win percentage of 65.3%, including five consecutive trips to the playoffs. This is a difficult division to project, as each team is in a unique situation. The Bills have their franchise quarterback, and should remain successful for the forseeable future. The Dolphins have one of the best playcalling head coaches in the league, which is incredible valuable for long-term success. The Jets have a roster that is built to win now (and only now). Finally, the Patriots are in the middle of a complete rebuild.
2. AFC West
Win Percentage: 52%
Conference Championship Appearances: 7
You may start to notice a theme here. for the most part, the divisions that have been the most successful in the last decade are the ones that have had one clear frontrunner for the majority of that stretch. Dynasties lift overall win percentage and especially playoff success. That frontrunner for the AFC West is, of course, the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have appeared in six consecutive conference championship games, won three Super Bowls, and finished atop the division eight straight years. Though it feels like it was ages ago, the Broncos’ Super Bowl win sneaks into this decade as well. Unless the Raiders, Chargers, and Broncos make significant improvements, I don’t see the Cheifs’ reign ending any time soon.
1. NFC West
Win Percentage: 52.2%
Conference Championship Appearances: 8
By these metrics, the NFC West has been the most successful division in the NFL, and it’s not very close. At every point in the last decade, at least one (and often two) of the teams in this division have been Super Bowl contenders. The one knock on this division is that, for all that success, it boasts only one Super Bowl win during this time. While that’s clearly a legitimite concern, I expect the teams in this division to have a few more opportunities to win it all in the near future. I see all four of the head coaches in this division as some of the best strategic minds in the league. While Matthew Stafford may be the only elite quarterback in this division, these teams don’t rely on elite quarterback play. They each utilize complete roster building, strategic nuances, and established cultures to bring success.
