Starting this season, the College Football Playoff will expand from the original format to a new 12-team format. The five highest ranked conference champions will earn automatic bids into the playoff, meaning we will see at least one non-power conference program take one of the 12 spots. The lack of small school representation in the CFP was one major reason for expansion, but which Group of 5 program will make their debut in the playoff? Of course, anything can happen in college football. It’s difficult to predict in July what will happen in September, let alone December, but I’ll give it a shot. In this article, I’ll rank the seven non-power conference teams that are most likely to claim a spot in the CFP this season.
Honorable Mentions
James Madison: The Dukes finished 11-2 in their second FBS season. They should contend for the Sun Belt championship, but may have lost too many starters to compete for a spot in the playoff.
UNLV: UNLV will look to build on last season’s Mountain West Conference Championship appearance. However, with quarterback Jayden Maiava departing for USC, the Rebels may not have enough firepower on offense to compete with conference foe Boise State.
Texas State: The Bobcats should have one of the best offenses outside of the power conferences this season. Even with some key transfers, I don’t expect their defense to be good enough to make their way into the tournament.
7. UTSA
The UTSA Roadrunners went 9-4 last season and gave themselves a real chance to win a top-heavy American Conference. UTSA has a talented offense lead by sophomore quarterback Owen McCown (son of long-time NFL signal caller Josh McCown). The Roadrunners will face a tough matchup early against Texas, but are fortunate to avoid a few top conference foes during the regular season. If they can stay healthy and avoid losing trap games, UTSA could make a run to the AAC championship, and potentially a playoff berth.
6. South Florida
USF is a popular sleeper pick to make the playoff this season. They posted their first winning season since 2018 last year, going 7-6 and winning a bowl game. Returning quarterback Byrum Brown broke school records last season, and is expected to lead a dangerous Bulls offense into contention in 2024. However, this this team may be too young and inexperienced to pull off big wins in an American Conference with plenty of playoff contenders. This young team’s maturity will be tested early as they face both Alabama and Miami in September.
5. Appalachian State
App State has quietly been one of the more consistent non-power conference programs in the nation since Joining the FBS in 2014. The Mountaineers have yet to post a losing record since then, and they certainly don’t expect to break that streak this season. App State should have a good chance to win a weak Sun Belt Conference. Don’t count the Mountaineers out in their non-conference matchup against Clemson, as they have a history of pulling off upsets against top opponents. If other Group of 5 contenders go down, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this squad in the tournament come December.
4. Tulane
The Green Wave have made back-to-back appearances in the AAC Conference Championship Game, finding their place among top-25 rankings a few times in recent history. However, former Tulane head coach Willie Fritz has left to coach Houston this season. This is still a talented roster that has a real chance to sustain their recent success and make their way into the playoff. The Green Wave match up with both Kansas State and Oklahoma early in the season. If they can keep those games competitive, and transfer quarterback Ty Thompson can get the offense rolling during conference play, Tulane could make a run at the playoff.
3. Memphis
Last season was a major success for head coach Ryan Silverfield and Memphis. After finishing the regular season with a 9-3 record, the Tigers beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl to earn their highest win total since 2014. Memphis will bring back key pieces of what was an effective offense last season. New defensive coordinator Jordon Hankins is tasked with building a defense that can slow down the high-powered offenses of the AAC.
2. Liberty
In their first season in Conference USA, the Liberty Flames finished with an undefeated regular season and conference championship, ultimately losing 45-6 in a Fiesta Bowl matchup with Oregon. Returning quarterback Kaidon Salter passed for almost three thousand yards and ran for over a thousand on the Flames’ impressive run. The biggest knock on Liberty is their strength of schedule. Without any real challenges in their non-conference schedule, the Flames’ toughest test will come in late September against Appalachian State. If they can win that matchup and avoid losing against lesser opponents, it may be difficult for the committee to leave an undefeated Liberty team out of the playoff picture.
1. Boise State
The Broncos may be the most popular pick to claim the fifth conference champion’s place in this year’s playoff, and with good reason. Head coach Spencer Danielson took over mid-season and turned his team around, ultimately leading them to an 8-6 finish and bowl appearance. Junior Ashton Jeanty is one of the best running backs in the country, and will line up alongside former five star transfer quarterback Malachi Nelson to lead what should be the most prolific offense in the Mountain West. Boise State plays Oregon early in the season, but if they can avoid losses to formidable opponents like Oregon State and Washington State they will have a great chance at going 11-1 and making the playoff.
